PROBABLE Prediction 2020.2 [PENDING]

Submitted 10th April 1995 by Greg Baker
[email protected]

Prediction:

The first quantum-type computer will be made in 2020.

Objective measurement:

A computer will be on sale which will be able to factorise a 2000 digit number in under a day.

When:

Before 2020.

Why:

Just seems a reasonable time frame. Quantum computers will revolutionise everything, and I'm sure there will be many companies racing to build them in the next century.

We seem to be at the same stage with quantum computers as Babbage was with van Neumann machines. He died about a century too early. As an arbitrary figure, the pace of development now is about 4 times what it was then, so 25 years seems a reasonable figure.

Further comments:

Some sites that are relevant :


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