PROBABLE Prediction 2010.1

Prediction:

Objective measurement:

When:

Why:

• "Real" programmers don't like Microsoft. Many "real" programmers are getting to be managers of businesses, and would much rather develop software for systems that work very well (Mac/Newton/OS2?), rather than work around bug-ridden code that Microsoft writes.
• BUGS! Have you ever used Microsoft Word's drawing package? One of these days, bugs like that are going to cause some very expensive problem. (All bugs do eventually.)
• Cesaré Marchetti has observed that companies can produce 5 innovations before they die. The only way to break this rule is to split up into smaller companies. Nobody knows why - it just appears to be the case. Microsoft has developed 4 pieces of software that have taken huge market-share slices (DOS, Windows, Word, Windows NT). Their next development will have to be their last. If Windows 95 ever ships, and is successful as they hope it will be, their demise might come sooner.
• Linux, X11 and the Wine project. Who would pay for copies of Microsoft's staples (DOS and Windows), when you can get exactly the same thing (with extra functionality) for free?
• Already people are attaching .signatures to their mail and Usenet postings such as :

  Microsoft Network is prohibited from redistributing this work in any form, in whole or in part. Copyright, Philip Ryan, 1995 License to distribute this post is available to Microsoft for $1000. Posting without permission constitutes an agreement to these terms.

  What are the legal implications of this? Do access providers have liability to check everything they transmit? But it will certainly be Microsoft who will have to handle the expense of the first big court case to discuss these issues.

Further comments:

Follow-ups:

• Mark Goldsmid