PROBABLE Prediction 1999.3 ![[CROSS]](../cross.gif)
Submitted 22nd January, 1996 by Randall Fawl
[email protected]
Prediction:
Grain prices will rise to record levels as the result of a prolonged drought in the American Midwest.
Objective measurement:
Palmer Drought Severity Index will average between -2 and -4 for most regions in the Midwest. Surplus grain supplies will be depleted as demand outstrips productions from successive years of poor harvests.
When:
From '96 through '99
Why:
- Grain prices are already near record levels due to increased demand in China and India. This has made U.S. grain surpluses dangerously low.
- Inclement weather increases in the Midwest in years following the end of an El Nino phenomenon. The end of the most recent El Nino was officially declared in April '95.
- Drought in the American Midwest occurs on average every 4 years, and severe drought occurs about every 22 years. Both of these patterns suggest that the Midwest is entering several years of severe drought.
- Sunspot activity will be at its lowpoint by the end of '96. The 22 year drought pattern in the Midwest coincides with double minima of sunspot numbers. The last prolonged drought began at sunspot minimum in 1974; the next double minimum will arrive late in the current year.
Further comments:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/regional_monitoring